Is Assad Playing Chess While The Rest Of The World Plays Checkers?

Before the conflict in Syria became a full-blown civil war, Bashar al-Assad was using the specter of terrorism to justify the brutal repression of his people.

In the early days, the argument was laughable. After all, the initial protests in January of 2011 were led by regular citizens, not terrorists. The demonstrators spanned all ages and classes. They were a peaceful extension of the Arab Spring, a regional revolution calling on Mid-East dictators to relinquish their decades-long, iron-fisted rule in favor of political reforms and the reinstatement of civil rights. 

However, in order to keep his legitimacy, Assad couldn't just suppress his own people for no reason. He needed a sustainable, long-term excuse to justify his crackdown.

As a result, terrorism became a convenient scapegoat.

By claiming he was "fighting terrorists," Assad was able to change the perception of the Syrian Civil War. Suddenly, it was no longer a one-sided story of a bloodthirsty tyrant crushing his own people. Now Assad could claim to be a president courageously defending his country against terrorists hell-bent on destroying it.

The elephant in the room, of course, was that Assad's "terrorist" claim was complete fiction, at least in the beginning. It willfully ignored the fact that the vast majority of people he was killing at the start of the conflict were everyday Syrians peacefully petitioning their government for reform. 

Even those who went on to join the Free Syrian Army and fight directly against Assad weren't terrorists. They were, as Obama famously put it, "farmers and dentists who have never fought before."

THE RISE OF ISIS

To date, more than 200,000 people have been killed in the Syrian Civil War. After 3+ years of bloodshed, Assad continues to cling to power. But the chessboard has shifted dramatically since 2011.

The power vacuum created by years of chaos has allowed extremists a safe haven from which to grow and strengthen. No one has benefited more from this unrest than ISIS. Out of the chaos they've been able to carve a Caliphate, the western portion of which consumes almost all of northern and eastern Syria. 

The Syrian city of Raqqa has become ISIS's capital. Its neighboring hills were likely the location of the James Foley beheading.  

This is where the US-led bombing raid is currently conducting many of its strikes. Unfortunately, they're playing directly into Assad's hands.

First off, as a result of Western and Arab countries targeting ISIS in Syria, Assad gains international legitimacy by default. Suddenly, he becomes the lesser of two evils in the eyes of the world. Sure, he may kill his own people by the tens of thousands- but at least he doesn't behead them on the internet. 

Also, thanks to ISIS, Assad's once-laughable claim to be "fighting terrorists" now seems, at least on the surface, somewhat believable. After all, if ISIS wasn't such a dangerous threat to the world an international coalition wouldn't be bombing them right now.

MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 

It's hard to think of Assad as anything else but a ruthless tyrant who gasses his own people and drops barrel bombs on their heads. But after seeing the way events have unfolded in his favor the past few years, we must now ask ourselves: if he just getting lucky? or is he a brilliant strategist playing the US and the world like a fiddle?

After all, despite neighboring dictators being toppled all around him, Assad has somehow managed to survive. He has been betting and winning for some time now. 

He bet against Obama enforcing his chemical weapons "red line"-- and he won.

He bet on ISIS, providing them a safe haven from which to incubate and grow into a jhadist Frankenstein-- and they did.

Then, just when ISIS became so out-of-control they were bursting at the seams, Assad bet on the US and its allies to intervene at the 11th hour to "degrade and destroy" them-- and now they are.

All the while, Assad gets to sit back in his Damascus palace and watch gleefully as the US-led coalition acts as his personal air force, strengthening his grip on power by blowing his most dangerous opponent into smithereens for free.

For a while it seemed like Assad was just getting lucky, making it up as he went along. 

But now it's starting to feel more and more like he's playing chess while the rest of the world plays checkers.