"When you're bleeding a guy you don't squeeze him dry right away. Contrarily, you let him do his bidding, suavely. So you can bleed him next week and the week after."
-Christopher Moltisanti
When thinking about ISIS, Assad and what the US should do in Syria, I keep coming back to this epic quote from The Sopranos. It's helpful because it shows the mindset of a thug: how a true mafia man- a member of the organized crime family- handles their affairs and treats their adversaries.
In this particular quote, Christopher is explaining to the younger guys who haven't been made yet how to handle an unruly "client." Chrissy warns them not to go overboard with their initial punishment, instead telling them to act strategically with tomorrow in mind.
Translation: Don't just kill the guy up front: manipulate the situation, bleed him slowly so he survives long enough to pay off in the long run. Let him do his bidding.
This is how the US, and more specifically, Barack Obama, should approach Syria.
After all, mass-murdering dictators and barbaric jihadists play by a different set of rules. They don't respect diplomacy or international law. As a result, we must treat the thugs of ISIS and Assad the way Christopher and the family handles organized crime. We must think strategically. We must not squeeze them dry right away. We must bleed them slowly with tomorrow in mind.
WHY WE CAN'T WORK WITH ASSAD
Following the gruesome, stomach-churning execution of James Foley, the drumbeat to war against ISIS is growing louder. Americans want revenge. They want justice. They want to punish ISIS for the unthinkable act of terror they've committed against us by beheading one of our own for all the world to see.
But it isn't just the American people who want a pound of flesh from ISIS. Obama himself is considering airstrikes in Syria to take them out where they are strongest. He has already approved surveillance flights to map out ISIS positions and potential targets, a precursor to a bombing campaign.
Unfortunately, this is a big mistake.
While it's true that in order to defeat ISIS we must hit them in Syria, their stronghold, doing so will only create more problems.
First off, by striking ISIS in Syria the US would be indirectly aligning with Assad. This is exactly what Assad wants. We would be doing him a favor by rushing to his defense and acting as his personal air force. We would effectively be saving the presidency of a man whom the US has repeatedly said "must go."
In addition, by aligning with Assad- a maniacal tyrant who has killed well over 100,000 Muslims- we would further alienate moderate Muslims all across the Middle East. This will only cause more anti-American sentiment and support for ISIS, as they would become the only perceived defender against Assad and American aggression.
Secondly, it would represent a massive flip-flop and geo-political embarrassment for the US. After all, almost exactly a year ago Obama was about to bomb Assad for crossing his chemical weapons "red line." Now we're going to work with him?
On a broader scale, what message would it send to the rest of the world if the US worked hand in glove with a butcher like Assad? A man who gasses and barrel-bombs his own people? We would lose whatever amount of international legitimacy we have left.
ACT LIKE A SOPRANO
If working with Assad to strike ISIS in Syria is off the table, what could the US do instead?
Simple: act like a Soprano.
Don't squeeze ISIS dry right away by striking them in Syria. Instead, continue to slowly bleed them in Iraq. Continue to arm and aid the Kurds and work the Iraqi military to beat ISIS back. We've already seen how this strategy can be successful. Just look at the joint-coalition effort to re-take the Mosul Dam.
Because military action can only achieve so much, we must also continue to pressure and guide the new government in Baghdad, making sure they are being inclusive so that Sunni, Shia and Kurdish members are all represented equally at the table. This is key to forming a long-lasting, strong Iraq- one with stability and security that can act as a buffer in the region against ISIS and future jihadists groups.
By hitting ISIS in Iraq we will eventually force them to retreat into Syria. This is a win for the US as it places them directly on Assad's doorstep. Now they are even more of a problem for Assad than they were before. He can no longer pit them in a proxy-war against the Free Syrian Army or other jihadist groups like Jabhat Al Nusrah. Instead, he will now be forced to confront them head on.
This would be great news for the US because by forcing ISIS and Assad into a prolonged battle, both sides will be bled slowly, the casualty numbers driven into infinite oblivion.
We were provided a glimpse of what a full-blown ISIS versus Assad war would look like just this past week at Tabqa Airbase. Thousands of ISIS fighters managed to storm Tabqa and secure it from Assad forces. While it was a major victory for ISIS and an embarrassing defeat for Assad, it was costly for both sides.
In the Tabqa battle, some 346 ISIS fighters were killed along with roughly 200 regime soldiers. Hundreds of others were wounded on both sides. Another 200 regime soldiers were taken prisoner by ISIS and later executed in the desert.
(Also, keep in mind that ISIS has seized heavy weaponry from Tabqa and now likely possesses MANPADs, or shoulder-mounted rocket launchers capable of taking down low-flying aircraft. Imagine if they were able to shoot down a US jet conducting airstrikes in Syria or take our military personnel hostage.)
While forcing ISIS and Assad to kill each other is a sadistic strategy, it is a much better option than conducting airstrikes in Syria, putting boots on the ground or working with Assad.
THINK LONG TERM
Obama can't act like a diplomat in Syria. The rules of diplomacy, international law and basic respect do not apply to barbaric jihadists and mass-murdering dictators. To defeat thugs like ISIS and Assad, Obama must take a page out of the Sopranos' playbook and act like a mob boss.
Obama should heed Christopher's advice: don't squeeze ISIS dry right away with airstrikes in Syria. Don't be consumed by the short-term need for immediate justice for James Foley's death. That will come in time.
Instead think strategically. Think about tomorrow and the next day- the long term. Continue to hit them in Iraq and force them to flee to Syria where they will have to take on Assad. Send them into a prolonged war. Let them do their bidding.
In the meantime, step up US support for the Free Syrian Army so that they are strong enough to defeat whomever emerges victorious from the heavyweight bout between ISIS and Assad.
By following this plan, Obama will save us from the indignity of having to work with Assad and also save us from the unintended consequences of having to conduct airstrikes in Syria or put boots on the ground.
The strategy is laid out for Obama.
All he has to do is abandon the lofty rhetoric and act like a Soprano.
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