Friday, November 7, 2014

Cheer Up, Democrats. We May Have Lost The Midterm Battle, But We're Poised To Win The 2016 War


Tuesday night was a disaster for Democrats.

In the Senate, Republicans won back a net gain of seven seats to reclaim the majority. However, with Alaska still undecided and Louisiana set for a run-off, that number could climb to nine.

In the House, Republicans didn't just retain control of their majority, they strengthened it. As it stands now, they control more than 250 seats, their largest majority since 1928.

For Democrats, it's hard not to be equal parts shellshocked and depressed. 

Just like that, the Obama Era is over.

Sure, the President still has two years left, but let's be honest: Obama is a lame duck. He won't be able to get anything done with an all-Republican Congress. He won't be signing any bills into law. He will only be vetoing them.

But despite the death of Hope and Change, there are still plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Democrats may have lost the Midterm battle, but they are poised to win the 2016 war.


THE POPULARITY OF LIBERAL POLICIES

While the media focuses almost exclusively on the fact that Democrats got crushed in the Midterms, they ignore the fact that Liberal policies actually did very well on Tuesday.

In all five states where a minimum wage increase was on the ballot, all five states voted yes. And these weren't all deep blue states- they were red states like Alaska, Arkansas, Nebraska and South Dakota. 

So while Obama's push to raise the federal minimum wage to $10.10 gets stonewalled by Republicans in Congress, the idea continues to be wildly popular at the state level.

Another Liberal policy that won big on Tuesday was the legalization of marijuana. Alaska, Oregon and Washington DC voted overwhelmingly to legalize the drug, joining Colorado and Washington. 


In an awkward paradox, voters said yes to Liberal policies like raising the minimum wage and legalizing marijuana, but also said yes to a Republican candidate, the vast majority of whom are against both. 


THE MIDTERM AUTOPSY

Democrats got crushed for a variety of reasons on Tuesday. 

Obama's poor approval rating dragged down the party as a whole. Fear of ISIS and Ebola strengthened the Conservative position as well. Also, the Democrats were fighting against two historical norms that greatly favored Republicans.

The first was that Midterm Elections almost always go against the party in the White House, especially Presidents who are entering their final two years in office.

The second factor operating against Democrats was simple: their voters don't turn out for off-year elections.

Nowhere was this harsh reality more pronounced than among young people.

According to an NBC News exit poll, voters under 30 accounted for just 12% of the Midterm electorate. In comparison, young people made up 19% of the electorate in the 2012 Presidential Election.

Meanwhile, people over 60 voted in droves on Tuesday, making up 37% of the Midterm Electorate. 



So while older people came out in full force (mostly for Republicans), young people abandoned Democrats and stayed home, ensuring their defeat.


WINNING THE WAR

Democrats may have lost the Midterm battle, but they are poised to win the 2016 war. 

Democrats are winning on the ideas. Liberal policies like raising the minimum wage and legalizing marijuana are wildly popular. The same can be said for marriage equality and equal pay for women.

What Republican policies are winning at that level nationally? I'm hard pressed to think of one.

Democrats are also looking at a bright future in 2016 because many of the debilitating factors that sunk the party in 2014 will be gone. 

First off, Republicans won't have the President to kick around anymore. They will have to actually articulate a vision for the country, not just run blindly against Obama.

In addition, the political landscape favors Democrats as well. Republicans will be forced to defend 24 Senate seats in 2016. Conversely, Democrats will only have to defend 10. 

The elephant in the room, of course, is that Democrats also have a game-changing ace up their sleeve in 2016: Hillary Clinton.


She may be a war hawk and Wall Street defender, but Hillary represents a once in a generation opportunity for the Democrats to keep the White House and win back the Senate.

She is both qualified and popular. And she would certainly energize the base to turn out at the polls. The movement to elect the first female President would be an unstoppable force.

So fear not, Democrats. We took one on the chin Tuesday, but there are bright skies ahead. 

We are winning on the ideas. And we have an ace in the bullpen. 

Now, if we can just survive two years of Republican control...

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